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When preparing for a craft show, one of the biggest challenges is knowing how much inventory to bring. Bring too little, and you miss out on potential sales. Bring too much, and you’re left with unnecessary stock taking up space. The best way to find the right balance? Use data, not guesswork.

By leveraging Shopify Analytics, (not sponsored, this is just all I know!) you can use real sales data to make informed decisions about your inventory. In this guide, I’ll walk you through the exact process I use to calculate how much inventory to bring to an event so you can set realistic sales goals and stock up with confidence.

Step 1: Set Your Sales Goal

Before you can determine how much inventory to bring, you need a sales goal.

👉 Why does this matter? You can’t make money off of inventory you don’t bring! I learned this the hard way after selling out at my first big show. Your goal will serve as a baseline for the minimum amount of inventory you need to bring.

Ask yourself:

• How much do you realistically think you can make at this event?
• Have you done this same show before?
• If not, have you done similar-sized events?

Once you have a goal, it’s time to dive into your Shopify Analytics.

 

Step 2: Use Shopify Analytics to Find Your Sales Data

To calculate your inventory needs, go into Shopify Analytics → Reports, and select one of the following reports:

🔹 Total Sales by Product Variant
🔹 POS Total Sales by Product Type

👉 Which report should you use?

• If your online sales are very different from your in-person sales, use POS Total Sales by Product Type to filter for in-person events.
• If you use different POS locations, add a filter for POS location name to focus only on your show inventory.

Now, select the date range:

• Did you do this show last year?
• Have you done similar shows before?
• Do you want to take all your festival sales data from the past year?

Once you’ve set your date range, note your total sales number for this data set.

 

Step 3: Find Your Product Category Percentages

Now, it’s time to calculate what percentage of your sales each product category contributes.

1️⃣ Take the total sales for a specific product category.
2️⃣ Divide that number by your total overall sales for all categories.
3️⃣ Multiply that percentage by your sales goal to estimate how much revenue will come from that category.

Example:

• Total Sales Last Year: $15,000
• Sales from Cigarette Cases: $5,000
• $5,000 ÷ $15,000 = 33%
• If my sales goal for this festival is $5,000, I estimate:
  $5,000 x 33% = $1,666 in cigarette case sales.

 

Step 4: Convert Revenue Into Units

Once you know how much revenue you’ll make per product category, you can determine how many units to bring.

📝 Formula:
Estimated revenue for the category ÷ price per item = number of units needed

Example:

• My cigarette cases sell for $20 each.
• $1,666 ÷ $20 = I need to bring at least 84 cigarette cases.

 

Step 5: Break It Down by Product Variant (Optional but Recommended!)

If your product category has multiple designs or variants, you can use the Total Sales by Product Variant report to calculate how many of each design you should bring.

1️⃣ Filter for the same date range as before.
2️⃣ Add a filter for product type to focus on one category at a time.
3️⃣ Find what percentage of your category sales each SKU made.
4️⃣ Multiply that percentage by your estimated category revenue.
5️⃣ Divide by the SKU price to get the number of units needed.

Example:

• Last year, I sold 1,000 cigarette cases total, and 300 were the Mary Jane design.
• 300 ÷ 1,000 = 30% of cigarette case sales were Mary Jane.
• 30% x my estimated 84 cigarette cases = I need to bring at least 26 Mary Jane cases.

 

Other Factors to Consider

✅ New Products: If you’re introducing a new product, you won’t have past sales data. Instead, estimate how much revenue you think it will bring based on trends and demand.

✅ Market Changes: Consumer behavior shifts from year to year. If your data is from a year ago, factor in any economic, seasonal, or industry trends that could impact sales.

✅ Venue & Audience: Some markets cater to higher-ticket items, while others focus on affordable impulse buys. Consider the show’s audience when making your final inventory decision.

 

Final Thoughts: Use Data, Not Guesswork

This method isn’t a perfect science, there are always variables at play, but using Shopify Analytics helps take the guesswork out of inventory planning so you can come prepared and maximize sales.

Want to make this process even easier?

🎉 Get Our Free Inventory Calculator!
We’ve created a simple Excel sheet that automatically calculates how much inventory you need based on your sales data. Just enter your goal, past sales, and product prices, and let the spreadsheet do the math!

 

Now, go forth and crush your next craft show! 🚀